[compiler] Fix false positive hook return mutation error

This was fun. We previously added the MaybeAlias effect in #33984 in order to describe the semantic that an unknown function call _may_ alias its return value in its result, but that we don't know this for sure. We record mutations through MaybeAlias edges when walking backward in the data flow graph, but downgrade them to conditional mutations. See the original PR for full context.

That change was sufficient for the original case like

```js
const frozen = useContext();
useEffect(() => {
  frozen.method().property = true;
}, [...]);
```

But it wasn't sufficient for cases where the aliasing occured between operands:

```js
const dispatch = useDispatch();
<div onClick={(e) => {
  dispatch(...e.target.value)
  e.target.value = ...;
}} />
```

Here we would record a `Capture dispatch <- e.target` effect. Then during processing of the `event.target.value = ...` assignment we'd eventually  _forward_ from `event` to `dispatch` (along a MaybeAlias edge). But in #33984 I missed that this forward walk also has to downgrade to conditional.

In addition to that change, we also have to be a bit more precise about which set of effects we create for alias/capture/maybe-alias. The new logic is a bit clearer, I think:

* If the value is frozen, it's an ImmutableCapture edge
* If the values are mutable, it's a Capture
* If it's a context->context, context->mutable, or mutable->context, count it as MaybeAlias.